Reporting suspected or confirmed cases helps us validate this new emergence forecast. The best way to check how accurate the model is across the UK is to receive reports of real field cases. If you see eggs or maggots on sheep, please submit a report using the external link below.
Only the first half of the postcode is requested — this is not used to locate strike cases, but purely to help validate and improve the forecast for future years.
Blowfly Strike Tracker & Reporting System in the UK
This Blowfly Reporting Site is supported and provided by Elanco.
Powered by Visual Crossing - www.visualcrossing.com/weather-api
Each dot on the map represents a weather station. Zoom in on the map and click on the weather station closest to you - but read more below on how the information relates to your holding.
Fly emergence unlikely
Fly emergence possible soon
Fly emergence due soon
Flies emerging
The forecast provides guidance on when blowfly emergence from overwintered pupae can be expected. It is based on temperatures recorded at nearby weather stations, but actual timing will vary depending on individual farm factors. For example, farms with south‑facing slopes or those situated at lower altitudes than the nearest weather station may see fly emergence earlier. Conversely, farms with north‑facing slopes or at higher elevations may experience later emergence. The nearest weather station might not always be the best match for your farm.
The aim of the forecast is to help producers identify when temperatures have reached the threshold at which fly emergence is imminent and to support planning of preventative treatments before the first wave of flies appears
Zoom in on the map to locate the station(s) closest to your holding. Click on the relevant station(s) to check the fly emergence status, obtain additional information and guidance on what to do next. Use knowledge of your farm and the surrounding area to choose the weather station that is most relevant to you. In most cases this will be the nearest station but if, for example, there is a large difference in the height above sea level between your holding and the nearest weather station, a station further away may be more representative. (If you click on a station it will give the height above sea level). Alternatively take a view across a combination of stations in your area.
Model development and programming for this forecast was completed by PARASIM Ltd. in association with Queen's University Belfast. We also thank Prof. Richard Wall and Dr Hannah Rose Vineer for their expert advice. The forecast is based on research described in Wall et al. (1992) Effects of temperature on the development and abundance of the sheep blowfly Lucilia sericata. Bull. Ent. Res, 82, 125-131
