How to use the forecast

A short video on how to use the Nematodirus Hatching Forecast.

Nematodirus Hatching Forecast

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Hatching at a glance

Each dot on the map represents a weather station. Zoom in on the map and click on the weather station closest to you - but read more below on how the information relates to your holding.

Negligible Hatching

Minimal Hatching Post Hatch

Hatching Imminent Past Peak Hatch

Hatching in Progress Recent Peak Hatch

Peak Hatching

The forecast predicts the hatching date for nematodirus larvae based on temperature data from 140 weather stations throughout the UK. It should always be used in combination with your grazing history and other risk factors.

Using the SCOPS Nematodirus Hatching Forecast

Zoom in on the map to locate the station(s) closest to your holding. Use knowledge of your farm and the surrounding area to choose the weather station that is most relevant to you. In most cases this will be the nearest station but if, for example, there is a large difference in the height above sea level between your holding and the nearest weather station, a station further away may be more representative. (If you click on a station it will give the height above sea level). Alternatively take a view across a combination of stations in your area.

Click on the relevant station(s) and to check the hatching status, obtain additional information and guidance on what to do next. Remember, when deciding whether or not to take any action, it is important to assess the risk for each group of lambs, including the grazing history of the field, its aspect and altitude. South-facing fields tend to have an earlier hatch and, as a guide, every 100m increase in altitude will delay hatching by about seven days. For example, if your nearest weather station is 100m above sea level and the field is 200m above sea level, peak hatching will be around seven days later than shown in the forecast.

Check the previous data for the station - click here to see how temperatures have changed in previous weeks to make sure when /if peak hatching has occurred. With increasingly mild winters it may well be that this is already behind you.

Taking Action - before taking any action make sure you carry out a risk assessment based on the grazing history of the field, age of the lambs and other stress related factors. For more information on actions and treatment options click here.

 

 

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The forecast is based on scientific research funded by UK Research and Innovation at the Universities of Bristol and Liverpool and Queen’s University Belfast.

References:

  • van Dijk J, Morgan ER. The influence of temperature on the development, hatching and survival of Nematodirus battus larvae. Parasitology. 2008;135(2):269-283. Doi:10.1017/S0031182007003812
  • Gethings OJ, Rose H, Mitchell S, van Dijk J, Morgan ER. Asynchrony in host and parasite phenology may decrease disease risk in livestock under climate warming: Nematodirus battus in lambs as a case study. Parasitology. 2015;142(10):1306-1317. Doi:10.1017/S0031182015000633
  • Hopkinson A, Vineer HR, Armstrong D, Stubbings L, Howe M, Morgan ER, Graham-Brown J. 2021 Comparing two predictive risk models for nematodirosis in Great Britain. Vet. Rec. 188, 4–7. (doi:10.1002/vetr.73)